New election model sees Trump leading Harris, Dems winning House |
Could Donald Trump win the White House and lose the popular vote, or Democrats win the House and lose the popular vote? That’s the scenario British pollster FocalData found in an estimate of where all 50 states and all 435 House Districts stand, shared first with Semafor. The model is not a traditional poll of individual races, but a multi-level regression based on national data they collected through online surveys. “Perhaps what the electorate are saying is they are unsure who should win, and whoever does should be massively checked — whether that’s the executive and legislature,” FocalData pollster James Kanagasooriam said. “That’s a more subtle story than just saying America is divided 50/50. People are internally and externally conflicted.” — Benjy Sarlin |